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Each month we share the risks & opportunities we are watching across markets.

Risks we are watching: 

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Yes 27% · No 73%
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Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Yes 40% · No 61%
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US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Yes 13% · No 88%
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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Yes 16% · No 85%
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Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Yes 10% · No 90%
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Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Yes 21% · No 80%
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Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
Yes 27% · No 74%
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