All Newsletters5 May 2026

Latest Newsletter on our Thesis on the under-estimation of future growth.

The Era of Ai, where we are and our thesis moving forward

Long term followers will know we were one of the first UK funds to position for the Era of Ai. Having benefitted from the initial excitement about ChatGPT, we repeatedly made two key statements:

For the Era to continue we needed to see the models move on from Answer Machines to Functional Agents which would in turn lead to an explosion in Token growth and demand for Ai hardware; and
We would see a hollowing out of a number of legacy Software 1.0 and Services 1.0 business models.

BOTH of the above have come to pass. Now we are going to lay out what our Thesis is for the next stage of the Era of Ai. However, before we do that we are going to dig deeper into the History of Technology investing to form a basis for our Thesis.

If you have spent a decade or more investing in Technology stocks you will have noticed a well-documented phenomenon in financial history: while markets often succumb to short-term hype, the long-term compounding power of dominant tech platforms is systematically underestimated by the analyst community.

History shows that analysts frequently focus on linear risks (e.g., quarterly margin compression, hardware saturation) while missing exponential inflection points (e.g., the transition to cloud, mobile monetization, or services).

So why does the Financial Community tend to underestimate the Future?

Historical data suggests three structural reasons why analysts keep moving their goalposts upward:

Operating Leverage is Non-Linear: Analysts use spreadsheets that favor linear growth. They often fail to model how a 20% increase in revenue can lead to an 25% increase the next year due to scale, network effects, or the accelerating trajectories often seen in technological revolutions. Humans are generally not good at foreseeing exponential changes.
Amara’s Law: As you noted, we tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run. Analysts get fixated on high Capital Expenditure (Capex), such as the $180B–$190B Alphabet and Amazon are spending on AI in 2025, viewing it as a “cost” rather than the foundation for the next decade of growth. Analysts have a natural bias to forecast within the pack of consensus and conservatively. The “Financial Community” is designed to be conservative to protect downside risk. In “Eras of Fast Growth,” this conservatism acts as a blindfold to the power of reinvested cash flows and network effects.
Platform Optionality: It is nearly impossible for an analyst to “model” a business that doesn’t exist yet. In 2010, nobody modelled AWS as a $100B run-rate business; in 2015, nobody modelled Apple’s Services as a $100B business.

Let’s look at some examples from history.

Meta (FB): The 2012 Mobile Pivot Miss

One of the most famous historical underestimations occurred during Facebook’s 2012 IPO era.

The Consensus: In late 2012, research firms like eMarketer slashed revenue forecasts by $1 billion, citing the company’s “failure” to monetize mobile users (Statista, 2012).
The Reality: Meta’s revenue grew from $5 billion in 2012 to over $164 billion by 2024 (Business of Apps, 2026). Analysts focused on the immediate “friction” of the mobile transition and missed the massive operating leverage that would follow once the ad engine was optimized for smartphones (WallStreetZen, 2026).

Microsoft (MSFT): The “Mobile First, Cloud First” Skepticism

When Satya Nadella took over in 2014, the consensus view was that Microsoft had “missed the boat” on both mobile and cloud, ceding the future to Apple and Amazon (AWS).

The Underestimation (2014): Analysts focused on the death of the PC and the disastrous Nokia acquisition. Very few models in 2014 predicted that Azure would become a $75B+ annual business by 2025.
The Reality: Between 2015 and 2018, Azure reported 10 consecutive quarters of 90%+ revenue growth. Wall Street’s “Intelligent Cloud” estimates were raised almost every single quarter for five years.

The GOOG Post-IPO “Monetization Gap” (2004–2007)

Immediately following its IPO, Google entered a multi-year stretch where Wall Street simply could not keep pace with the efficiency of its ad engine.

The Consensus Error: Analysts modelled Google like a standard media company, assuming linear growth. They missed the “accumulated knowledge” factor—Google was learning to monetize every query significantly better than the quarter before.
The Results: In 2004, Google reported revenue growth of 118% (hitting $3.19 billion). In 2005, it grew another 92.5%.
The Revision Cycle: Year after year, the “Street” had to chase the stock. In Q4 2004, Google reported an EPS of $0.71, nearly 700% higher than the $0.10 reported just a year prior. Analysts were forced to raise their full-year revenue targets by billions of dollars as Google blew past “saturation” narratives in the search market.

Our Thesis is simple, over the next three to five years you are going to see the same situation with Ai stocks. Just when the Press is telling you to sell the Bubble, our Thesis is that this period will see exponential earnings that only the most optimistic analysts are currently anywhere near forecasting. This will be a golden period of investing like the early days of FB, GOOG or AMZN.

So we have repositioned our Portfolio for this Thesis. IF we are correct in our Thesis, we could be in a position to harness game changing gains in the forthcoming period. We believe this is going to be a once in a lifetime, exciting journey. Warning: there will be volatility along the way, as we said before, this journey is more likely to be exponential than linear. Those that want high returns with no volatility have misunderstood how financial markets work.

We strongly recommend you read in detail the Results Reviews on our Holdings that we have written below, and ask yourself: does this sound like and exciting, ultra growth opportunity ahead?

The Equity Market looking forward

In addition, we see a path ahead that would lead to buoyant Equity Markets generally.

In our recently released Factsheet, we stated that we are very positive on the appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chairman. We see Warsh as an enlightened Supply Side, Monetarist who will shrink the Federal Reserve’s balance and counter this tightening with lower interest rates to boost Main Street. The Federal Reserve is out of date, slow to react and needs rejuvenating and hence we welcome all the changes that we believe will be forthcoming.

We see US exceptionalism continue to unfold with fantastic earnings growth for US indices ahead; please remember that earnings growth revisions have always been the biggest driver of Equity markets

In addition, Equity Markets are not expensive and nowhere near Bubble territory. Even Sentiment is not overly Bullish and has room to run.

As Yardeni Research put it: “Investors Intelligence’s BBR is at 2.37 versus its 2.60 long-term average, and AAII’s is at 0.96 versus 1.19. Both have lifted well off the lows, but neither is anywhere near readings that would flash a contrarian sentiment top. Rising-but-still-below-average sentiment is exactly the profile of a bull market with room to run.”

So, all we need now is for the Straits of Hormuz to open and look like they will stay open. We really need that now.

Our new NVDA Model in full

Our model is the only one we know that builds bottom up from Ai workflow types => type of chip => NVDA share.
This methodology will become increasingly important as the divergence in workflows undertaken by agents widens.
Our Target price remains $500 by 2030. As time passes, we become increasingly more confident of that Target Price.
The route to $500 will not be linear. Market share will drop, increasingly new specialised hardware will be released, Vera Rubin is experiencing delays but we believe that NVDA will remain “King of the Hill”.
Our model is detailed, dynamic and forward looking (as much as that is possible in this fast moving industry).
There is a reason that NVDA is the largest company in the world, it did not happen in a void. It is an elite chip designer with an extraordinary CEO, whose competitors pale in comparison.

Looking at the chart below, we can see that the earnings are continuing their South West to North East trajectory that we are always looking for in a holding. The issue has been that the stock keeps devaluing as shown by the green line, which causes a two way pull. We hope that this devaluation shift is reaching an end, and will be halted by more sizeable stock buy backs in H2 2026.

In the meantime, look what is happening to the rental prices for NVDA chips:

Q1 2026 Results round up for Portfolio Holdings

LRCX management raised its 2026 Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE) spending forecast to $140 billion (up from $135 billion last quarter), noting a continued bias to the upside. As AI demands more powerful hardware (especially Memory), chipmakers are rushing to upgrade their factories. This transition is driving massive ‘etch intensity‘—essentially requiring more of Lam’s precision carving tools to build the ultra-dense storage and memory chips that AI data centers require. With Lam’s Striker solution now the tool of record for all leading memory manufacturers, the company is effectively capturing a larger slice of the total semiconductor CapEx pie.

There is a huge Boom in the Memory Semiconductor space which is a sector that has historically been highly cyclical. It is terrifying for any Technology Fund Manager to ride this now highly extended boom, so we have decided to try to harness some of the upside from that boom via what we hope is a relatively lower risk proxy.

Highlights from the management call below:

“In January, we shared our outlook for 2026 WFE in the $135 billion range. Since then, spending projections from customers have moved higher across all device segments. We now expect WFE of $140 billion with a bias to the upside as the industry continues to work through various constraints.”
“We believe this sets the stage for another year of compelling WFE growth in 2027.”
“In 2026, we see Lam’s served available market or SAM percent of WFE expanding to slightly more than the mid-30s percent level, well on-track toward our stated goal of high-30s percent over the next few years.”
For capital return in the March quarter, we allocated approximately $800 million to share buybacks… Our average buyback price was approximately $211 per share. We also retired $750 … Additionally, we paid $326 million in dividends. In the March quarter, we returned 139% of our free cash flow.”
“We have $4.3 billion remaining on our Board authorized share repurchase program.”
Long-Term Visibility / LTAs
“It’s translated into a longer visibility for us… we’re having conversations with customers now at around the time that they’re starting to construct these fabs, which means we have much longer visibility.”
“We’re having very long-term conversation with customers, but we don’t need down-payments. We generate ample free cash flow from the business we run. The commitments we’re going to get from customers are important and significant and they’re happening certainly, but it doesn’t require down-payments for us.”

Intuitive Surgical delivered a beat and raise in Q1, proving that its next-generation hardware is a powerful engine for both growth and pricing. Revenue accelerated 23% Y/Y to $2.8 billion ($150 million beat), while adjusted EPS was $2.50 ($0.39 beat). Intuitive placed 431 systems this quarter, with the dV5 accounting for 232 of those. The overall da Vinci installed base grew 12% Y/Y to 11,395. Management nudged its full-year procedure growth guidance up slightly to 13.5%–15.5%, but this is still a step down from the 18% growth seen last year.

ISRG is struggling to attract investor attention because both Medtronic and Johnson & Johnson are pushing for regulatory wins this year in competition with ISRG, hence it is viewed that Intuitive’s decades-long monopoly is facing legitimate pressure. ISRG has also historically sold a material proportion (6% and growing) of its systems into China, which is now seen to be promoting home developed solutions.

Nonetheless, ISRG has now de-rated to a 2027 EV/EBITDA ratio of ~27x which we now see as very reasonable considering its market position and innovation leadership. Sometimes stocks require patience. We focus on the red lines below when we watch our stocks as this shows the earnings growth through time, but the green line shows just how much this stock has devalued over the last year. We hope that devaluation shift is now ending.

TSMC’s Q1 FY26 Revenue skyrocketed 41% Y/Y to $35.9 billion ($0.4 billion beat), while net income surged 58%. Management raised its full-year 2026 revenue growth forecast to above 30%, up from the previous ~30% target.

Gross margins expanded to a staggering 66%, far exceeding the analyst consensus of 64.5%. CEO C.C. Wei noted that the industry is moving beyond generative AI into agentic AI, leading to a step-up in chip demand that shows no sign of cooling.

We worry about the “China Blockade of Taiwan” risk for TSMC, otherwise we believe the stock is an Elite, fast growth, almost monopolist.

Micron’s revenue for Q2 skyrocketed 196% Y/Y to $23.9 billion, beating consensus by over $4.5 billion. To put that in perspective, Micron’s revenue guidance for the next quarter alone (~$33.5 billion) now exceeds the full-year revenue of every year in the company’s history through 2024. Remember, what we said earlier about the Memory Semiconductor BOOM, which is being driven by huge shortages in current capacity to satisfy demand.

The memory shortage has evolved beyond an AI-only narrative. It is now rippling through the broader electronics ecosystem. The positives for MU from these results include:

HBM4 momentum: Micron has begun volume shipments of HBM4 for NVIDIA’s next-generation platforms, securing its position in a market many feared it would lose to SK Hynix (another holding in our Portfolio) and Samsung.
A longer shortage? While analysts once hoped supply would normalize by 2027, some industry leaders now think tightness could persist for four to five more years. This is why we have to play in this sub-sector’s boom.
Consumer Technology products spillover: HP recently said memory prices roughly doubled in a single quarter. As Micron prioritizes high-margin AI memory, standard PC and phone manufacturers are fighting for scraps, driving hardware costs higher for everyone.

GOOG results were a win. The chart below shows how their combination of models, compute, specialised hardware, and software is crushing MSFT and AMZN. We fail to see how MSFT or AMZN realistically fight back, as we have detailed before we see MSFT as “fighting the last war” in its approach to the threats Ai will have on its business.

There were some fantastic quotes from the conference call with GOOG management which we have dropped in below:

“Our first-party models now process more than 16 billion tokens per minute via direct API used by our customers, up from 10 billion last quarter.”

“Over the past 12 months, 330 Google Cloud customers each processed over 1 trillion tokens, 35 reached the 10 trillion token milestone.”

“Gemini Enterprise paid monthly active users grew 40% quarter-over-quarter. That includes major global brands like Bosch, Citywealth, Merck and Mars Incorporated.” This point is absolutely key and shows the Era of Ai has moved on from being Hyperscaler focused to widening to all Large Enterprises. Do not underestimate this point.

“Gemini-powered workflows in BigQuery to grow over 30x year-over-year.” “We’re in the early stages of the agentic era.”

“Cloud revenues accelerated across all key areas and were up 63% to $20 billion.” “Cloud operating income was $6.6 billion, tripling year-over-year, and operating margin increased from 17.8% in the first quarter of last year to 32.9%.” YES, check that Operating Margin, and the Press tell you Ai is not profitable!

“Our custom TPUs, Axion CPUs, and the latest NVIDIA GPUs continue to form the industry’s widest variety of compute options. NVIDIA GPUs are a core part of our AI accelerator portfolio and will be among the first to offer NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72.”

“We are seeing unprecedented internal and external demand for AI compute resources... we expect our 2027 CapEx to significantly increase compared to 2026.”

“In a constrained environment, when we are choosing to allocate across all these opportunities, we are working off a robust ROIC framework.” YES, again a robust ROIC framework!

Bloom Energy projected Sales profile per BBG

The above positivity was outdone by Bloom Energy management on their Q1 2026 earnings call:

“Revenue for the quarter was $751.1 million, up 130.4% year-over-year. This is the first-quarter of greater than 100% year-over-year growth in Bloom’s history as a public company.”
“Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $143 million… with EBITDA margin expanding by more than 1,100 basis points to approximately 19%.
“Cash flow from operating activities was an inflow of $73.6 million, positive for the first time in the first-quarter of the year.”
“We ended Q1 with $2.52 billion in total cash on the balance sheet.”
“We at Bloom are ushering in the era of digital power for the digital age… Bloom is rapidly becoming the standard and go-to choice for on-site power.”
“What you have built over more than two decades is meeting the market at exactly the right moment. You believed and always knew that an inflection point would come.”

The Oracle Project Jupiter Win

“Last night, Oracle announced a new power paradigm for Project Jupiter, a multi-gigawatt AI factory to-be-built in New Mexico… This up to 2.45 gigawatt power block will replace Project Jupiter’s previously planned gas turbines and backup diesel generators with Bloom Energy servers. It will be 100% Bloom.”
“When completed, it will be one of the largest islanded microgrid power facilities in the world.”
“Oracle pivoted to Bloom-only solution for two main reasons. First, be a responsible corporate citizen and partner by being responsive to residents’ concerns about air quality, water use, noise, and increasing electricity rates. Second, to stand up their grid-independent and clean AI factory with even greater reliability and speed.”
“At a time where every quarter of delay translates into hundreds of millions in foregone AI revenue and loss of competitive advantage, speed of powered infrastructure development is the difference between leading and following.”
“Becoming the sole power provider for Project Jupiter is a milestone for Bloom, but it’s not going to be a one-off project; where Oracle is going is where the broader market is headed.”

Backlog Composition

“Well more than half of our current data center backlog comes from other hyperscalers, neoclouds, and co-location providers. Just like the Oracle Jupiter project, these micro-grid installations will use no grid, no dirty diesel generators for backup, no battery banks for load following, no engines, no turbines, just Bloom and Bloom alone.”
“We are continuing to engage with more hyperscalers and neo clouds by signing new contracts and slot reservations.

Raised Full-Year 2026 Guidance

“We are raising 2026 revenue guidance of $3.1 billion to $3.3 billion to $3.4 billion to $3.8 billion. At the midpoint, that takes growth from 60% year-over-year to 80%.”
“We are also raising our gross margin outlook from 32% to 34%, barring any global shock or exogenous factors.”

The “Bloom Way” — Continuous Capacity Adds

“Their supply to current orders arrives only in 2029 or later, irrespective of the customer’s needs. Ours arrives this year or the next, or whenever the customer is ready.”
“Based on demand profile, we have now shifted to adding capacity continuously, hundreds of megawatts a quarter, as opposed to lumpy one-off additions to be completed in a year’s time.”
“We are not order-constrained and not capacity-constrained. The pace of our revenue growth is decided by how fast our customers can build their greenfield sites, not how fast we can power them. We will never be the bottleneck to our customers.”
“Our current manufacturing footprint will allow us to deliver 5 gigawatts of product annually.” “Going beyond the 5 gigawatt capacity, our supply-chain and manufacturing strategy and planning allows us to build that capacity significantly faster than any other option in the market using our copy-exact model.”
“Bloom was built on the vision of lighting up the planet… 5 gigawatts a year or 6 gigawatts a year is not going to light up the planet. So we are going to build factories as-needed.”

Community-Friendly / Permitting

“Bloom preserves local air quality. We do not combust and pollute the air like conventional technologies. We use minimal water at startup and none during normal operations. We are quiet, compact, and efficient with land-use.”
“As permits and permissions become the gating factor for AI infrastructure, community acceptance matters increasingly.”
“Our fully islanded, grid-independent, one-stop full-stack power solution does not raise the monthly electricity bill for community residents.”

The Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Comparison

“Take… a 2.5 gigawatt power block that needs to power a large training data center somewhere. The obvious example that you would go to would be a large CCGT, a bunch of large CCGTs with gas to be able to provide that power. To put it in perspective for the people listening to this call, that is the capacity of the state of Rhode Island in one single data center.”
“If you use CCGT, you will use all the water that all residents use to shower a day in Rhode Island just to power that power plant. Close to a million showers a day, and you will create not from it, air pollution that is the equivalent of all the cars in Rhode Island.”
“We don’t compare our pricing with engines and turbines. It’s apples and oranges. We are creating a completely different value for our customer.”

Cost Position

“Our energy servers are now cost-competitive with grid power in most US markets and with off-grid alternatives in nearly all markets. With over a decade of double-digit cost reductions, we remain the only on-site generation solution with a sustained downward sloping cost curve.”
“Should you expect a double-digit cost-reduction like we have over the last decade? The answer is absolutely yes.”

Inference Opportunity

“Inference is going to be much bigger than training in terms of total gigawatt need, but it is going to be not concentrated in the multi-gigawatt data centers that you’re looking at. And think about this: inference by definition is at the edge, a lot closer to highly dense populations of people and processes.”
“If you’re seeing the resistance you’re seeing today to a conventional power plant being built in the backyard of a large training data center that happens to be in a small remote town, just think about what that resistance would be in a city if you don’t have clean solutions.”

Service Business

“We have a 100% attach rate between our product sales and our service. There is not a single deal that we do without an attach rate to our service. Even with the data center opportunities, on average, it’s 10 to 15 years.”
“Services margins were 18%, up 13 points from Q1 last year, achieving a double-digit gross margin for the fourth consecutive quarter and profitability for the ninth consecutive quarter.”

On “Bridge Power” Competitors

“Earlier in this conversation, they used to bring up the concept of bridge power with us, and I would smile and always say we are happy to sell you a bridge to a bridge because Superman ain’t coming, okay? So today, that conversation is non-existent.”

Demand & Outlook

“To say that business is accelerating is an understatement… we just don’t look at the demands coming to us at any point in time in isolation. We are a power company embedded in Silicon Valley, and we understand the end-user technology extremely well.”
“The amount of demand that is being generated and the rate at which that’s growing is significantly faster than what alternative providers of power can create.”

Speed of Installation

“We have close to an order of magnitude reduction in the field time that it takes for us to be able to install our systems. That’s a huge innovation.”
“I can assure you that we can get a 100 megawatt project up and running faster and with the least amount of field hours than any competing technology out there.”

Channels Beyond Hyperscalers

“What we are doing in AI right now is truly a rinse and repeat of what we have done in the commercial and industrial space.”
“With the utility-scale customers, for the first time, I think they are seeing favorable regulation that allows them to rate base and offer better solutions to their customers.”
“Think about the reshoring of big factories to America. How are they going to get the power? We see that as a huge opportunity for us.”

Closing — KR’s “No Compromise” Pitch

“The use of AI and the amount of power that AI is going to use is going to go up and up and up over the next few years. The rate at which that growth has happened is not going to be met just by transmission and distribution upgrades. That means onsite power is absolutely essential.”
“If onsite power is absolutely essential, in no neighborhood would a community willingly want a power plant in their backyard that pollutes, noisy, and an eyesore.”

Now you can see why Beth Kindig sees this stock doubling from here.

INTC results contained some surprises for the outlook for the semiconductor architecture industry when they stated that Agentic AI inference pushes the CPU-to-GPU ratio from 1:8 toward parity 1:1 over time and has already tightened to 1:4. The result was a big move up for INTC but also NVDA moved +4% to a record close and $5 trillion market cap as (1) DeepSeek V4 based on Huawei chips was underwhelming and (2) NVDA has a CPU business too. | CNBC. AMD and ARM also caught a huge bid this week.

You will hear wild talk about how CPUs will not become more important in the Ai architecture than GPUs. It is overstatement, but it is true that that is now excess demand for CPUs and GPUs and Memory chips. They are all at the Party!

Vertiv projected Sales profile per BBG

Key points from the management conference call following results:

“I’m very pleased with how we’ve started the year. The momentum we’re seeing across business is strong and it’s translating into the kind of performance that gives us confidence to raise our outlook for the full year.”
“What we’re seeing in customer conversations is different than six months ago. The urgency has increased, the scale of deployment is larger and the technical complexity is creating opportunities for companies that can solve system-level problems, which is exactly where we excel.“
“We’re still in the early stages of the infrastructure build-out for AI. Our competitive advantages are compounding.“
“Our pipeline momentum continues to be strong. Our pipeline generation is robust and we’re still expecting another year of strong orders performance in 2026. We anticipate orders to be up year-over-year.”
Customer Mix
“We continue to see hyperscale, colo, Neo cloud being the biggest driver… there is an element of enterprise here. A lot of enterprise will continue to happen through cloud, so not always easy to separate. But we see enterprise starting to adopt AI.” Please note the Enterprise clients are accelerating comments again, following GOOG above.
Closing (Gio Albertazzi)
“I’m more confident than ever about where Vertiv is headed. The trajectory is strong, the opportunities are significant and we’re well positioned to capture them.”

SK Hynix projected Sales profile per BBG

Key points from the management conference call following results:

“As memory becomes increasingly critical in AI computing, demand for high-performance memory is surging while supply remains constrained. Amid this supply-demand imbalance, customers are prioritizing securing volume over pricing, which is sustaining the current strength. Accordingly, we expect a favorable pricing environment to continue for the time being.”
“The current price strength is driven by structural changes in the market, not by the temporary supply-demand imbalance, and that is why we also expect that this trend to be different.”
“For HBM4, we have been working closely with customers from the early stages of development, and we plan to ramp up volume in line with the agreed schedule of products that meet the customers’ required performance levels.”
“Customers’ demand for the next three years far exceeds our current supply capacity.”

Long-Term Agreements (LTAs)

“As the memory shortage persists, customer requests to secure medium to long-term supply volumes have significantly increased. Memory today has become so critical that customers now see memory price and supply uncertainties as key business risks.”
“If multi-year LTAs are successfully established, we expect investment efficiency to naturally improve thanks to demand visibility and stable profitability… it can also reduce the volatility that has repeatedly plagued the memory industry.” Remember, this stock trades on an EV to EBITDA of less than 4x so if the industry switches from being day by day cyclical to 5 year LTAs you can expect it to re-rate,

Shareholder Returns & ADR

“We believe that achieving financial soundness with net cash of more than KRW100 trillion and expanding shareholder returns are goals that can be pursued in parallel. In addition to dividend, we will also actively review additional shareholder return matters such as share buybacks and cancellations and establish an implementation plan within the year.”

Robinhood’s Q1 revenue rose 15% Y/Y to $1.1 billion ($70 million miss) but GAAP EPS of $0.38 missed by $0.01, with profit growth stalling at just 3% Y/Y. Crypto revenue fell 47% Y/Y to $134 million as digital asset prices slumped. Prediction markets came to the rescue. Other transaction revenue surged 320% to $147 million on a record 8.8 billion event contracts, though that business already saw volumes drop 29% from January to February as football season ended.

Equities (+46%) and Net interest (+24%) helped, while Robinhood Gold subscribers hit 4.3 million (+36% Y/Y) and total platform assets reached $307 billion. ARPU dropped to $157 from $191 in Q4, the clearest sign that engagement is cooling.

We firmly believe that once the Prediction Markets JV between Susquehanna and HOOD, which will clear through their MIAXdx exchange and clearing house, is launched we will see explosive growth from this division. The issue is that there are some US politicians hell bent on banning or restricting the activities of Prediction markets. In the meantime, the stock will require patience.

Conclusions on the Results round up so far

We have exhibited in the commentary above why we believe we have a highly exciting, huge opportunity, ultra growth portfolio. Combine that Portfolio that with a potentially improving Equity Markets, and an Era of Ai which is entering an exponential growth period, and the result is a very compelling position.

The Portfolio is performing for us already, but we hope for far more. We are materially beating the FTSE All Share (even in Share Price terms):

…and the Nasdaq 100 in NAV Total return terms.

Our since inception annualised is over 18 per cent in NAV Total return terms…

Our fantastic Dividend Yield

Remember, that on Friday you will get paid the new enhanced dividend per share of 20p per share, which would make an annualised rate of 40p. The share price sits at a discount of over 25 per cent to NAV per Share which means you can reinvest your dividend into a £ of assets for less than 75p in the £. The annualised dividend yield at 40p/932p = 4.3 per cent.

Perhaps the discount is your cyclical opportunity?

Key Manchester & London Updates

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