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Each month we share the risks & opportunities we are watching across markets.

Risks we are watching: 

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Yes 45% · No 56%
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Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Yes 41% · No 60%
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Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Yes 48% · No 53%
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US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Yes 35% · No 66%
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Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Yes 10% · No 90%
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Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Yes 21% · No 80%
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Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
Yes 27% · No 74%
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Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Yes 70% · No 30%
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